The DPJ’s losing streak at the ballot box continued at the second round of local elections held on April 24. Two weeks ago, the DPJ was handily defeated by the LDP in the first round of gubernatorial and prefectural assembly elections. Another defeat, however much it was already projected, was expected to further embolden the opposition parties as well as the anti-Kan opponents within the ruling party.

Local elections are a necessity in any healthy and functioning democracy. The differences that exist across prefectures, let alone municipalities, mean that there are many issues that cannot (and should not) be addressed by national policy. Over the past decade, there has been a broad national trend towards regionalization; indeed, the DPJ itself even tried to ride on this desire for regional autonomy by making it one of its pledges in its 2009 election manifesto. Consequently, local issues do matter in municipal elections far more than national elections, even though the latter also elect Diet members who represent a particular district. However, municipal elections also factor in national issues, in particular the ruling party’s performance and policies. This would appear particularly true in the 2011 unified local elections, where the crisis management capabilities of the DPJ government after the 3/11 disasters was harshly judged by the voters.

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It is midweek here in Tokyo and I’m once again convinced that monitoring Japanese politics is a job for masochists.

The Japanese Government is considering a 3 percent consumption tax hike from 2012 for 3 years to fund the “reconstruction bonds” that it intends to issue to raise funds for the reconstruction of the disaster-hit Tohoku region. Compared to other tax sources, such as income or corporate taxes, a consumption tax hike is considered the most effective way of raising financial resources because a 1-percent increase will generate 2.5 trillion yen each year. The 7.5 trillion yen expected to be raised by the 3 percent increase will cover around half of the projected reconstruction expenditures.

The government deserves some credit for trying to behave responsibly. The most expedient option would have been to simply issue more Japan Government Bonds. However, this would seriously hurt the country’s already perilous national debt situation, translating into an even heavier burden for future generations of Japanese. (This would be the same group of Japanese who have already been hurt by reduced employment opportunities because of the “lost decades”, the Koizumi-era laws deregulating the labor market, and now the 3/11 disasters.) Instead, the government is trying to ensure that the new reconstruction bonds will be secured by tax revenue.

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The public opinion polls conducted by Asahi Shimbun and Mainichi Shimbun over the weekend represented a mixed bag for Prime Minister Kan Naoto. In a nutshell, the Kan administration’s hopes of a recovery in its political fortunes as a result of the 3/11 disasters are proving to be unfounded. There has been a small rebound in public opinion, but this is likely to dissipate as the politicking over the reconstruction process intensifies in the coming weeks.

Kan’s Cabinet approval ratings rose (marginally), but disapproval ratings remain in the 50-to 60-percent range. The high disapproval ratings will in turn continue to embolden the opposition parties and anti-Kan elements within the DPJ to challenge the Prime Minister’s position. Observe, for instance, how former PM Hatoyama Yukio and former DPJ Secretary-General Ozawa Ichiro have in recent days revived their de facto alliance by stepping up criticism of Kan over the nuclear crisis and the party’s resounding defeat at the first round of the unified local elections. Ozawa even went as far as to suggest that the two former party leaders issue a joint declaration to denounce Kan, but Hatoyama has to his credit responded that there was no need to go that far.

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